A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
