Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
