A mere eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
